R64-01 duke vs siena • R64-02 Ohio St. vs tcu • R64-03 st. john's vs northern iowa • R64-04 kansas vs cal baptist • R64-05 louisville vs south florida • R64-06 Michigan St. vs North Dakota St. • R64-07 ucla vs ucf • R64-08 connecticut vs furman • R64-09 michigan vs howard • R64-10 georgia vs saint louis • R64-11 texas tech vs akron • R64-12 alabama vs hofstra • R64-13 tennessee vs miami (ohio) • R64-14 virginia vs Wright St. • R64-15 kentucky vs santa clara • R64-16 Iowa St. vs tennessee state • R64-17 florida vs prairie view a&m • R64-18 clemson vs iowa • R64-19 vanderbilt vs McNeese St. • R64-20 nebraska vs troy • R64-21 north carolina vs vcu • R64-22 illinois vs penn • R64-23 saint mary's vs texas a&m • R64-24 houston vs idaho • R64-25 arizona vs liu • R64-26 villanova vs Utah St. • R64-27 wisconsin vs high point • R64-28 arkansas vs hawaii • R64-29 byu vs texas • R64-30 gonzaga vs Kennesaw St. • R64-31 miami vs missouri • R64-32 purdue vs queens · R64-01 duke vs siena • R64-02 Ohio St. vs tcu • R64-03 st. john's vs northern iowa • R64-04 kansas vs cal baptist • R64-05 louisville vs south florida • R64-06 Michigan St. vs North Dakota St. • R64-07 ucla vs ucf • R64-08 connecticut vs furman • R64-09 michigan vs howard • R64-10 georgia vs saint louis • R64-11 texas tech vs akron • R64-12 alabama vs hofstra • R64-13 tennessee vs miami (ohio) • R64-14 virginia vs Wright St. • R64-15 kentucky vs santa clara • R64-16 Iowa St. vs tennessee state • R64-17 florida vs prairie view a&m • R64-18 clemson vs iowa • R64-19 vanderbilt vs McNeese St. • R64-20 nebraska vs troy • R64-21 north carolina vs vcu • R64-22 illinois vs penn • R64-23 saint mary's vs texas a&m • R64-24 houston vs idaho • R64-25 arizona vs liu • R64-26 villanova vs Utah St. • R64-27 wisconsin vs high point • R64-28 arkansas vs hawaii • R64-29 byu vs texas • R64-30 gonzaga vs Kennesaw St. • R64-31 miami vs missouri • R64-32 purdue vs queens
Overview & Charts
Visual analytics layer
Round of 64
32
Decided Picks
32
Coverage
32
Season
2026
Simulations
500
Decided vs Undecided
Seed Bucket Distribution
Historical BPI (Top 25 Mean)
Prediction Lab
2026 preview-only model comparison and path analytics
Mode
preview
Models
10
Path Rows
12
High Entropy
13
Moderate Entropy
19
Model comparison is deterministic and preview-safe. It compares active model outputs without requiring live results.
Model Performance Scatter
User Alignment Detail
| Model | Matched | Compared | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction Entropy Model | 12 | 12 | 100.0% |
| System (Travel OFF) | 32 | 32 | 100.0% |
| Tournament Path Model | 12 | 12 | 100.0% |
| Kaggle Strengths | 30 | 32 | 93.8% |
| Hybrid | 28 | 32 | 87.5% |
| Seed Model | 28 | 32 | 87.5% |
| TeamRankings | 28 | 32 | 87.5% |
| TeamRankings + Travel | 28 | 32 | 87.5% |
| System (Travel ON) | 27 | 32 | 84.4% |
| Kaggle Strengths + Travel | 25 | 32 | 78.1% |
Style Comparison
Style Comparison Detail
| Model | Favorite Rate | Upset Rate | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32 |
| Kaggle Strengths | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32 |
| Kaggle Strengths + Travel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32 |
| Prediction Entropy Model | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12 |
| Seed Model | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32 |
| System (Travel OFF) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32 |
| System (Travel ON) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32 |
| TeamRankings | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32 |
| TeamRankings + Travel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32 |
| Tournament Path Model | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12 |
Tournament Path Strength
Tournament Path Model Detail
| Team | Seed | Path Strength | R32 Opponent | S16 Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| virginia | - | 0.2204 | tennessee | kentucky |
| florida | - | 0.2172 | clemson | vanderbilt |
| michigan | - | 0.2155 | georgia | alabama |
| kansas | - | 0.2151 | northern iowa | duke |
| gonzaga | - | 0.2134 | byu | purdue |
| duke | - | 0.1963 | tcu | kansas |
| louisville | - | 0.1902 | Michigan St. | connecticut |
| connecticut | - | 0.1890 | ucla | louisville |
| wisconsin | - | 0.1878 | arkansas | villanova |
| north carolina | - | 0.1864 | illinois | saint mary's |
| vanderbilt | - | 0.1785 | nebraska | florida |
| purdue | - | 0.1771 | miami | gonzaga |
Path strength is deterministic and derived only from existing matchup probabilities across the first three survival rounds.
Entropy Volatility
Prediction Entropy Model Detail
| Rank | Matchup | Winner | Entropy | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | clemson vs iowa | clemson | 0.6931 | high |
| 2 | saint mary's vs texas a&m | saint mary's | 0.6929 | high |
| 3 | byu vs texas | byu | 0.6923 | high |
| 4 | texas tech vs akron | texas tech | 0.6914 | high |
| 5 | arkansas vs hawaii | arkansas | 0.6912 | high |
| 6 | Iowa St. vs tennessee state | Iowa St. | 0.6906 | high |
| 7 | houston vs idaho | houston | 0.6901 | high |
| 8 | st. john's vs northern iowa | northern iowa | 0.6894 | high |
| 9 | villanova vs Utah St. | villanova | 0.6878 | high |
| 10 | alabama vs hofstra | alabama | 0.6859 | high |
| 11 | tennessee vs miami (ohio) | tennessee | 0.6685 | high |
| 12 | north carolina vs vcu | north carolina | 0.6622 | high |
Entropy highlights high-variance Round-of-64 environments using existing model win probabilities only.
Confidence Distribution
Confidence Distribution Detail
| Bucket | Count |
|---|---|
| 0.50 - 0.55 | 8 |
| 0.55 - 0.60 | 2 |
| 0.60 - 0.65 | 6 |
| 0.65 - 0.70 | 8 |
| 0.70 - 0.75 | 7 |
| 0.75 - 0.80 | 1 |
| 0.80 - 0.85 | 0 |
| 0.85 - 0.90 | 0 |
| 0.90 - 0.95 | 0 |
| 0.95 - 1.00 | 0 |
Entropy Mix
Pick Differences
| Game | Matchup | Unique Picks | Model Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio St. vs tcu | 2 |
Hybrid: tcu
Kaggle Strengths: tcu
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: tcu
Seed Model: Ohio St.
System (Travel OFF): tcu
System (Travel ON): tcu
TeamRankings: Ohio St.
TeamRankings + Travel: Ohio St.
|
| 2 | st. john's vs northern iowa | 2 |
Hybrid: northern iowa
Kaggle Strengths: northern iowa
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: northern iowa
Prediction Entropy Model: northern iowa
Seed Model: st. john's
System (Travel OFF): northern iowa
System (Travel ON): northern iowa
TeamRankings: st. john's
TeamRankings + Travel: st. john's
|
| 3 | kansas vs cal baptist | 2 |
Hybrid: kansas
Kaggle Strengths: kansas
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: cal baptist
Seed Model: kansas
System (Travel OFF): kansas
System (Travel ON): cal baptist
TeamRankings: kansas
TeamRankings + Travel: kansas
Tournament Path Model: kansas
|
| 5 | Michigan St. vs North Dakota St. | 2 |
Hybrid: michigan state
Kaggle Strengths: michigan state
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: michigan state
Seed Model: michigan state
System (Travel OFF): Michigan St.
System (Travel ON): Michigan St.
TeamRankings: michigan state
TeamRankings + Travel: michigan state
|
| 6 | ucla vs ucf | 2 |
Hybrid: ucla
Kaggle Strengths: ucla
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: ucf
Seed Model: ucla
System (Travel OFF): ucla
System (Travel ON): ucf
TeamRankings: ucla
TeamRankings + Travel: ucla
|
| 10 | texas tech vs akron | 2 |
Hybrid: texas tech
Kaggle Strengths: texas tech
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: akron
Prediction Entropy Model: texas tech
Seed Model: texas tech
System (Travel OFF): texas tech
System (Travel ON): akron
TeamRankings: texas tech
TeamRankings + Travel: texas tech
|
| 15 | Iowa St. vs tennessee state | 2 |
Hybrid: iowa state
Kaggle Strengths: iowa state
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: iowa state
Prediction Entropy Model: Iowa St.
Seed Model: iowa state
System (Travel OFF): Iowa St.
System (Travel ON): Iowa St.
TeamRankings: iowa state
TeamRankings + Travel: iowa state
|
| 22 | saint mary's vs texas a&m | 2 |
Hybrid: texas a&m
Kaggle Strengths: saint mary's
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: texas a&m
Prediction Entropy Model: saint mary's
Seed Model: saint mary's
System (Travel OFF): saint mary's
System (Travel ON): texas a&m
TeamRankings: saint mary's
TeamRankings + Travel: saint mary's
|
| 25 | villanova vs Utah St. | 2 |
Hybrid: Utah St.
Kaggle Strengths: villanova
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: Utah St.
Prediction Entropy Model: villanova
Seed Model: villanova
System (Travel OFF): villanova
System (Travel ON): Utah St.
TeamRankings: villanova
TeamRankings + Travel: villanova
|
High / Moderate / Low entropy: 13 / 19 / 0