R64-01 (1) auburn 83–63 (16) Alabama St. (W: auburn) • R64-02 (8) louisville 75–89 (9) creighton (W: creighton) • R64-03 (5) michigan 68–65 (12) uc san diego (W: michigan) • R64-04 (4) texas a&m 80–71 (13) yale (W: texas a&m) • R64-05 (6) mississippi 71–64 (11) north carolina (W: mississippi) • R64-06 (3) Iowa St. 82–55 (14) lipscomb (W: Iowa St.) • R64-07 (7) marquette 66–75 (10) new mexico (W: new mexico) • R64-08 (2) Michigan St. 87–62 (15) bryant (W: Michigan St.) • R64-09 (1) florida 95–69 (16) Norfolk St. (W: florida) • R64-10 (8) connecticut 67–59 (9) oklahoma (W: connecticut) • R64-11 (5) memphis 70–78 (12) Colorado St. (W: Colorado St.) • R64-12 (4) maryland 81–49 (13) grand canyon (W: maryland) • R64-13 (6) missouri 57–67 (11) drake (W: drake) • R64-14 (3) texas tech 82–72 (14) uncw (W: texas tech) • R64-15 (7) kansas 72–79 (10) arkansas (W: arkansas) • R64-16 (2) st. john's 83–53 (15) Nebraska Omaha (W: st. john's) • R64-17 (1) duke 93–49 (16) mount st. mary's (W: duke) • R64-18 (8) Mississippi St. 72–75 (9) baylor (W: baylor) • R64-19 (5) oregon 81–52 (12) liberty (W: oregon) • R64-20 (4) arizona 93–65 (13) akron (W: arizona) • R64-21 (6) byu 80–71 (11) vcu (W: byu) • R64-22 (3) wisconsin 85–66 (14) montana (W: wisconsin) • R64-23 (7) saint mary's 59–56 (10) vanderbilt (W: saint mary's) • R64-24 (2) alabama 90–81 (15) robert morris (W: alabama) • R64-25 (1) houston 78–40 (16) siu edwardsville (W: houston) • R64-26 (8) gonzaga 89–68 (9) georgia (W: gonzaga) • R64-27 (5) clemson 67–69 (12) McNeese St. (W: McNeese St.) • R64-28 (4) purdue 75–63 (13) high point (W: purdue) • R64-29 (6) illinois 86–73 (11) xavier (W: illinois) • R64-30 (3) kentucky 76–57 (14) troy (W: kentucky) • R64-31 (7) ucla 72–47 (10) Utah St. (W: ucla) • R64-32 (2) tennessee 77–62 (15) wofford (W: tennessee) • R32-01 (1) auburn 82–70 (9) creighton (W: auburn) • R32-02 (5) michigan 91–79 (4) texas a&m (W: michigan) • R32-03 (6) mississippi 91–78 (3) Iowa St. (W: mississippi) • R32-04 (10) new mexico 63–71 (2) Michigan St. (W: Michigan St.) • R32-05 (1) florida 77–75 (8) connecticut (W: florida) • R32-06 (12) Colorado St. 71–72 (4) maryland (W: maryland) • R32-07 (11) drake 64–77 (3) texas tech (W: texas tech) • R32-08 (10) arkansas 75–66 (2) st. john's (W: arkansas) • R32-09 (1) duke 89–66 (9) baylor (W: duke) • R32-10 (5) oregon 83–87 (4) arizona (W: arizona) • R32-11 (6) byu 91–89 (3) wisconsin (W: byu) • R32-12 (7) saint mary's 66–80 (2) alabama (W: alabama) • R32-13 (1) houston 81–76 (8) gonzaga (W: houston) • R32-14 (12) McNeese St. 62–76 (4) purdue (W: purdue) • R32-15 (6) illinois 75–84 (3) kentucky (W: kentucky) • R32-16 (7) ucla 58–67 (2) tennessee (W: tennessee) • S16-01 (1) auburn 78–65 (5) michigan (W: auburn) • S16-02 (6) mississippi 70–73 (2) Michigan St. (W: Michigan St.) • S16-03 (1) florida 87–71 (4) maryland (W: florida) • S16-04 (3) texas tech 85–83 (10) arkansas (W: texas tech) • S16-05 (1) duke 100–93 (4) arizona (W: duke) • S16-06 (6) byu 88–113 (2) alabama (W: alabama) • S16-07 (1) houston 62–60 (4) purdue (W: houston) • S16-08 (3) kentucky 65–78 (2) tennessee (W: tennessee) • E8-01 (1) auburn 70–64 (2) Michigan St. (W: auburn) • E8-02 (1) florida 84–79 (3) texas tech (W: florida) • E8-03 (1) duke 85–65 (2) alabama (W: duke) • E8-04 (1) houston 69–50 (2) tennessee (W: houston) • F4-01 (1) auburn 73–79 (1) florida (W: florida) • F4-02 (1) duke 67–70 (1) houston (W: houston) • CH-01 (1) florida 65–63 (1) houston (W: florida) · R64-01 (1) auburn 83–63 (16) Alabama St. (W: auburn) • R64-02 (8) louisville 75–89 (9) creighton (W: creighton) • R64-03 (5) michigan 68–65 (12) uc san diego (W: michigan) • R64-04 (4) texas a&m 80–71 (13) yale (W: texas a&m) • R64-05 (6) mississippi 71–64 (11) north carolina (W: mississippi) • R64-06 (3) Iowa St. 82–55 (14) lipscomb (W: Iowa St.) • R64-07 (7) marquette 66–75 (10) new mexico (W: new mexico) • R64-08 (2) Michigan St. 87–62 (15) bryant (W: Michigan St.) • R64-09 (1) florida 95–69 (16) Norfolk St. (W: florida) • R64-10 (8) connecticut 67–59 (9) oklahoma (W: connecticut) • R64-11 (5) memphis 70–78 (12) Colorado St. (W: Colorado St.) • R64-12 (4) maryland 81–49 (13) grand canyon (W: maryland) • R64-13 (6) missouri 57–67 (11) drake (W: drake) • R64-14 (3) texas tech 82–72 (14) uncw (W: texas tech) • R64-15 (7) kansas 72–79 (10) arkansas (W: arkansas) • R64-16 (2) st. john's 83–53 (15) Nebraska Omaha (W: st. john's) • R64-17 (1) duke 93–49 (16) mount st. mary's (W: duke) • R64-18 (8) Mississippi St. 72–75 (9) baylor (W: baylor) • R64-19 (5) oregon 81–52 (12) liberty (W: oregon) • R64-20 (4) arizona 93–65 (13) akron (W: arizona) • R64-21 (6) byu 80–71 (11) vcu (W: byu) • R64-22 (3) wisconsin 85–66 (14) montana (W: wisconsin) • R64-23 (7) saint mary's 59–56 (10) vanderbilt (W: saint mary's) • R64-24 (2) alabama 90–81 (15) robert morris (W: alabama) • R64-25 (1) houston 78–40 (16) siu edwardsville (W: houston) • R64-26 (8) gonzaga 89–68 (9) georgia (W: gonzaga) • R64-27 (5) clemson 67–69 (12) McNeese St. (W: McNeese St.) • R64-28 (4) purdue 75–63 (13) high point (W: purdue) • R64-29 (6) illinois 86–73 (11) xavier (W: illinois) • R64-30 (3) kentucky 76–57 (14) troy (W: kentucky) • R64-31 (7) ucla 72–47 (10) Utah St. (W: ucla) • R64-32 (2) tennessee 77–62 (15) wofford (W: tennessee) • R32-01 (1) auburn 82–70 (9) creighton (W: auburn) • R32-02 (5) michigan 91–79 (4) texas a&m (W: michigan) • R32-03 (6) mississippi 91–78 (3) Iowa St. (W: mississippi) • R32-04 (10) new mexico 63–71 (2) Michigan St. (W: Michigan St.) • R32-05 (1) florida 77–75 (8) connecticut (W: florida) • R32-06 (12) Colorado St. 71–72 (4) maryland (W: maryland) • R32-07 (11) drake 64–77 (3) texas tech (W: texas tech) • R32-08 (10) arkansas 75–66 (2) st. john's (W: arkansas) • R32-09 (1) duke 89–66 (9) baylor (W: duke) • R32-10 (5) oregon 83–87 (4) arizona (W: arizona) • R32-11 (6) byu 91–89 (3) wisconsin (W: byu) • R32-12 (7) saint mary's 66–80 (2) alabama (W: alabama) • R32-13 (1) houston 81–76 (8) gonzaga (W: houston) • R32-14 (12) McNeese St. 62–76 (4) purdue (W: purdue) • R32-15 (6) illinois 75–84 (3) kentucky (W: kentucky) • R32-16 (7) ucla 58–67 (2) tennessee (W: tennessee) • S16-01 (1) auburn 78–65 (5) michigan (W: auburn) • S16-02 (6) mississippi 70–73 (2) Michigan St. (W: Michigan St.) • S16-03 (1) florida 87–71 (4) maryland (W: florida) • S16-04 (3) texas tech 85–83 (10) arkansas (W: texas tech) • S16-05 (1) duke 100–93 (4) arizona (W: duke) • S16-06 (6) byu 88–113 (2) alabama (W: alabama) • S16-07 (1) houston 62–60 (4) purdue (W: houston) • S16-08 (3) kentucky 65–78 (2) tennessee (W: tennessee) • E8-01 (1) auburn 70–64 (2) Michigan St. (W: auburn) • E8-02 (1) florida 84–79 (3) texas tech (W: florida) • E8-03 (1) duke 85–65 (2) alabama (W: duke) • E8-04 (1) houston 69–50 (2) tennessee (W: houston) • F4-01 (1) auburn 73–79 (1) florida (W: florida) • F4-02 (1) duke 67–70 (1) houston (W: houston) • CH-01 (1) florida 65–63 (1) houston (W: florida) · R64-01 (1) auburn 83–63 (16) Alabama St. (W: auburn) • R64-02 (8) louisville 75–89 (9) creighton (W: creighton) • R64-03 (5) michigan 68–65 (12) uc san diego (W: michigan) • R64-04 (4) texas a&m 80–71 (13) yale (W: texas a&m) • R64-05 (6) mississippi 71–64 (11) north carolina (W: mississippi) • R64-06 (3) Iowa St. 82–55 (14) lipscomb (W: Iowa St.) • R64-07 (7) marquette 66–75 (10) new mexico (W: new mexico) • R64-08 (2) Michigan St. 87–62 (15) bryant (W: Michigan St.) • R64-09 (1) florida 95–69 (16) Norfolk St. (W: florida) • R64-10 (8) connecticut 67–59 (9) oklahoma (W: connecticut) • R64-11 (5) memphis 70–78 (12) Colorado St. (W: Colorado St.) • R64-12 (4) maryland 81–49 (13) grand canyon (W: maryland) • R64-13 (6) missouri 57–67 (11) drake (W: drake) • R64-14 (3) texas tech 82–72 (14) uncw (W: texas tech) • R64-15 (7) kansas 72–79 (10) arkansas (W: arkansas) • R64-16 (2) st. john's 83–53 (15) Nebraska Omaha (W: st. john's) • R64-17 (1) duke 93–49 (16) mount st. mary's (W: duke) • R64-18 (8) Mississippi St. 72–75 (9) baylor (W: baylor) • R64-19 (5) oregon 81–52 (12) liberty (W: oregon) • R64-20 (4) arizona 93–65 (13) akron (W: arizona) • R64-21 (6) byu 80–71 (11) vcu (W: byu) • R64-22 (3) wisconsin 85–66 (14) montana (W: wisconsin) • R64-23 (7) saint mary's 59–56 (10) vanderbilt (W: saint mary's) • R64-24 (2) alabama 90–81 (15) robert morris (W: alabama) • R64-25 (1) houston 78–40 (16) siu edwardsville (W: houston) • R64-26 (8) gonzaga 89–68 (9) georgia (W: gonzaga) • R64-27 (5) clemson 67–69 (12) McNeese St. (W: McNeese St.) • R64-28 (4) purdue 75–63 (13) high point (W: purdue) • R64-29 (6) illinois 86–73 (11) xavier (W: illinois) • R64-30 (3) kentucky 76–57 (14) troy (W: kentucky) • R64-31 (7) ucla 72–47 (10) Utah St. (W: ucla) • R64-32 (2) tennessee 77–62 (15) wofford (W: tennessee) • R32-01 (1) auburn 82–70 (9) creighton (W: auburn) • R32-02 (5) michigan 91–79 (4) texas a&m (W: michigan) • R32-03 (6) mississippi 91–78 (3) Iowa St. (W: mississippi) • R32-04 (10) new mexico 63–71 (2) Michigan St. (W: Michigan St.) • R32-05 (1) florida 77–75 (8) connecticut (W: florida) • R32-06 (12) Colorado St. 71–72 (4) maryland (W: maryland) • R32-07 (11) drake 64–77 (3) texas tech (W: texas tech) • R32-08 (10) arkansas 75–66 (2) st. john's (W: arkansas) • R32-09 (1) duke 89–66 (9) baylor (W: duke) • R32-10 (5) oregon 83–87 (4) arizona (W: arizona) • R32-11 (6) byu 91–89 (3) wisconsin (W: byu) • R32-12 (7) saint mary's 66–80 (2) alabama (W: alabama) • R32-13 (1) houston 81–76 (8) gonzaga (W: houston) • R32-14 (12) McNeese St. 62–76 (4) purdue (W: purdue) • R32-15 (6) illinois 75–84 (3) kentucky (W: kentucky) • R32-16 (7) ucla 58–67 (2) tennessee (W: tennessee) • S16-01 (1) auburn 78–65 (5) michigan (W: auburn) • S16-02 (6) mississippi 70–73 (2) Michigan St. (W: Michigan St.) • S16-03 (1) florida 87–71 (4) maryland (W: florida) • S16-04 (3) texas tech 85–83 (10) arkansas (W: texas tech) • S16-05 (1) duke 100–93 (4) arizona (W: duke) • S16-06 (6) byu 88–113 (2) alabama (W: alabama) • S16-07 (1) houston 62–60 (4) purdue (W: houston) • S16-08 (3) kentucky 65–78 (2) tennessee (W: tennessee) • E8-01 (1) auburn 70–64 (2) Michigan St. (W: auburn) • E8-02 (1) florida 84–79 (3) texas tech (W: florida) • E8-03 (1) duke 85–65 (2) alabama (W: duke) • E8-04 (1) houston 69–50 (2) tennessee (W: houston) • F4-01 (1) auburn 73–79 (1) florida (W: florida) • F4-02 (1) duke 67–70 (1) houston (W: houston) • CH-01 (1) florida 65–63 (1) houston (W: florida)
Overview
Quick status + headline metrics (informational; not wagering)
Season: 2025
Scale: 1.00
Sims: 500
Round of 64 coverage
32/32
System correct (R64)
--/32
System correct (Total)
--/63
System rate
--%
Chalk index
0.94
Upsets
1
Agreement vs Disagreement
Model focus
Chalk vs Upsets
R64 focus
Agreement by Model
Top shown
What-if
Flip-only: one system-wrong game -> Run. Reset required before next flip.
READY
Select a game to flip first.
Flip option (system-wrong only)
Historical results are loaded from the official 2025 feed.
Champion: florida
Model Leaderboard
Correct out of 63 (sorted)
Driven by deterministic truth IDs (63-game).
By-Round Accuracy
R64 -> CH (0-1 axis)
Uses stable IDs (R64-01..CH-01).
Confidence Distribution
Histogram of p(winner) buckets
Built from 32 R64 probabilities.
Calibration
Reliability buckets (actual vs predicted)
Uses Brier/ECE buckets when available.
Scenario Lab
Adjust assumptions and re-run simulations
Scenario Controls
Use the full width; closed by default
What this changes
Scale controls risk posture (chalk vs upset tilt).
Sims controls stability (Monte Carlo variance).
Travel applies site-based travel adjustments (k controls sensitivity).
What-if enables one deterministic flip against 2025 truth to study propagation.
UX-first goal: you should see the impacts immediately in Overview.
Scale
Sims
Travel
OFF
Travel k
What-if mode
OFF
READY
What-if controls appear inside Overview when enabled (2025 only).
Overlays
OFF
Advanced
OFF
This page focuses on analytics. No payout percentile, no betting support.
Model Response
What changed?
Travel
OFF
Travel k
0.0012
Flips
0
avg |Δp|
0.0000
max |Δp|
0.0000
This block is designed to visibly react to your knobs/levers.
Additional Analytics
Advanced breakdowns (optional)
Historical Results
Official outcomes by round
Historical results by round (official outcomes).
Champion: florida
| Round | Games | Winners |
|---|---|---|
| Round of 64 | 32 | auburn, creighton, michigan, texas a&m, mississippi, Iowa St., new mexico, Michigan St., florida, connecticut ... |
| Round of 32 | 16 | auburn, michigan, mississippi, Michigan St., florida, maryland, texas tech, arkansas, duke, arizona ... |
| Sweet 16 | 8 | auburn, Michigan St., florida, texas tech, duke, alabama, houston, tennessee |
| Elite 8 | 4 | auburn, florida, duke, houston |
| Final Four | 2 | florida, houston |
| Championship | 1 | florida |
Travel Impact
R64 flips and Δp
Travel impact summary (Round of 64): flips=0,
avg |Δp|=0.0000,
max |Δp|=0.0000
| Game | p(off) | p(on) | Δp | Winner(off -> on) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #0: (1) auburn vs (16) Alabama St. | 0.505 | 0.505 | 0.000 | (1) auburn -> (1) auburn |
| #1: (8) louisville vs (9) creighton | 0.515 | 0.515 | 0.000 | (8) louisville -> (8) louisville |
| #2: (5) michigan vs (12) uc san diego | 0.516 | 0.516 | 0.000 | (5) michigan -> (5) michigan |
| #3: (4) texas a&m vs (13) yale | 0.536 | 0.536 | 0.000 | (4) texas a&m -> (4) texas a&m |
| #4: (6) mississippi vs (11) north carolina | 0.506 | 0.506 | 0.000 | (6) mississippi -> (6) mississippi |
| #5: iowa state vs (14) lipscomb | 0.539 | 0.539 | 0.000 | iowa state -> iowa state |
| #6: (7) marquette vs (10) new mexico | 0.510 | 0.510 | 0.000 | (7) marquette -> (7) marquette |
| #7: michigan state vs (15) bryant | 0.631 | 0.631 | 0.000 | michigan state -> michigan state |
| #8: (1) florida vs norfolk state | 0.676 | 0.676 | 0.000 | (1) florida -> (1) florida |
| #9: (8) connecticut vs (9) oklahoma | 0.509 | 0.509 | 0.000 | (8) connecticut -> (8) connecticut |
Uncertainty & Stability
Simulation spread / entropy
Uncertainty & stability (Round of 64). Sims=500. Showing top 10 most uncertain games.
System (Travel OFF) — most uncertain
| Game | Winner | p(winner) | p05 | p95 | Spread | Entropy | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #17: (8) Mississippi St. vs (9) baylor | (9) baylor | 0.501 | 0.464 | 0.538 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #0: (1) auburn vs (16) Alabama St. | (1) auburn | 0.505 | 0.468 | 0.541 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #4: (6) mississippi vs (11) north carolina | (6) mississippi | 0.506 | 0.470 | 0.543 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #9: (8) connecticut vs (9) oklahoma | (8) connecticut | 0.509 | 0.473 | 0.546 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #6: (7) marquette vs (10) new mexico | (7) marquette | 0.510 | 0.474 | 0.547 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #20: (6) byu vs (11) vcu | (6) byu | 0.513 | 0.476 | 0.549 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #28: (6) illinois vs (11) xavier | (6) illinois | 0.515 | 0.478 | 0.551 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #1: (8) louisville vs (9) creighton | (8) louisville | 0.515 | 0.478 | 0.551 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #18: (5) oregon vs (12) liberty | (5) oregon | 0.515 | 0.478 | 0.551 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #25: (8) gonzaga vs (9) georgia | (8) gonzaga | 0.515 | 0.478 | 0.552 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
System (Travel ON) — most uncertain
| Game | Winner | p(winner) | p05 | p95 | Spread | Entropy | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #17: (8) Mississippi St. vs (9) baylor | (9) baylor | 0.501 | 0.464 | 0.538 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #0: (1) auburn vs (16) Alabama St. | (1) auburn | 0.505 | 0.468 | 0.541 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #4: (6) mississippi vs (11) north carolina | (6) mississippi | 0.506 | 0.470 | 0.543 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #9: (8) connecticut vs (9) oklahoma | (8) connecticut | 0.509 | 0.473 | 0.546 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #6: (7) marquette vs (10) new mexico | (7) marquette | 0.510 | 0.474 | 0.547 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #20: (6) byu vs (11) vcu | (6) byu | 0.513 | 0.476 | 0.549 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #28: (6) illinois vs (11) xavier | (6) illinois | 0.515 | 0.478 | 0.551 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #1: (8) louisville vs (9) creighton | (8) louisville | 0.515 | 0.478 | 0.551 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #18: (5) oregon vs (12) liberty | (5) oregon | 0.515 | 0.478 | 0.551 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
| #25: (8) gonzaga vs (9) georgia | (8) gonzaga | 0.515 | 0.478 | 0.552 | 0.074 | 0.693 | — |
Note: uncertainty values are approximations of how the observed win-rate could vary across sims (fast, stable). Entropy is higher near 50/50.
Calibration
Brier / ECE buckets (when available)
Calibration (model winner probabilities vs 2025 outcomes). Lower Brier/ECE is better. Buckets are grouped by p(winner).
System (Travel OFF)
Brier: 0.2042
ECE: 0.2498
| Bucket | n | avg p | actual | Δ (actual - p) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50–0.55 | 19 | 0.520 | 0.684 | 0.164 |
| 0.55–0.60 | 5 | 0.579 | 1.000 | 0.421 |
| 0.60–0.65 | 5 | 0.628 | 1.000 | 0.372 |
| 0.65–0.70 | 2 | 0.685 | 1.000 | 0.315 |
| 0.70–0.75 | 1 | 0.717 | 1.000 | 0.283 |
System (Travel ON)
Brier: 0.2042
ECE: 0.2498
| Bucket | n | avg p | actual | Δ (actual - p) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50–0.55 | 19 | 0.520 | 0.684 | 0.164 |
| 0.55–0.60 | 5 | 0.579 | 1.000 | 0.421 |
| 0.60–0.65 | 5 | 0.628 | 1.000 | 0.372 |
| 0.65–0.70 | 2 | 0.685 | 1.000 | 0.315 |
| 0.70–0.75 | 1 | 0.717 | 1.000 | 0.283 |
Flip Analysis
Panel-only: live rows + read-only selection
Flip Candidates
Flip candidates are the lowest-confidence current picks, derived only from existing Round-of-64 probability rows.
Top Impact
Top 10
Sorted by p(win) asc
Filters
No filters
Visible 0/0
| Game | Seeds | Ripple | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #17 (9) baylor vs (8) Mississippi St. | 9 / 8 | 0.50 |
|
1.0 | +5.0 |
| #0 (1) auburn vs (16) Alabama St. | 1 / 16 | 0.50 |
|
1.0 | +5.0 |
| #4 (6) mississippi vs (11) north carolina | 6 / 11 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #9 (8) connecticut vs (9) oklahoma | 8 / 9 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #6 (7) marquette vs (10) new mexico | 7 / 10 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #20 (6) byu vs (11) vcu | 6 / 11 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #28 (6) illinois vs (11) xavier | 6 / 11 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #1 (8) louisville vs (9) creighton | 8 / 9 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #18 (5) oregon vs (12) liberty | 5 / 12 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #25 (8) gonzaga vs (9) georgia | 8 / 9 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| No flip candidates match the active filters. | |||||
Selected Candidate
Current row selection and direct flip probabilities.
#17
Picked winner
(9) baylor
Picked loser
(8) Mississippi St.
p(win)
0.501
Flip p
0.499
Confidence gap
0.002
Impact Preview
Heuristic only. No simulation rerun and no bracket mutation.
#17
3 rounds
Propagation
Multi-round ripple
Volatility
Medium
Upset magnitude
1 seeds
Toss-up profile
Yes
Ripple
5/8
Impact
0.998
Delta
+4.992
Heuristic preview only. This panel does not run a new simulation and does not mutate the bracket.
Path Preview
Deterministic bracket path only. No simulation rerun and no bracket mutation.
#17
Deterministic path
Flip Game
(8) Mississippi St.
Flipped winner
Round of 32
(1) duke
Round of 32 opponent
Sweet 16
--
Projected stop vs duke
Elite 8
--
Elite 8 path unavailable
Path team
(8) Mississippi St.
Flip risk
0.499
Confidence gap
0.002
Delta
+4.992
Flipping game #17 inserts Mississippi St. into the deterministic bracket. The projected next opponent is duke, and the path ends in the Round of 32.
Assistant
Bracket Q&A + scenario help (login + tokens required)
Panel: full width · 350px height
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Live Bracket Leverage is available for completed rounds (historical leverage uses official results).