R64-01 (1) Duke vs (16) Siena • R64-02 (8) Ohio State vs (9) TCU • R64-03 (5) St. John's vs (12) Northern Iowa • R64-04 (4) Kansas vs (13) Cal Baptist • R64-05 (6) Louisville vs (11) South Florida • R64-06 (3) Michigan State vs (14) North Dakota State • R64-07 (7) UCLA vs (10) UCF • R64-08 (2) UConn vs (15) Furman • R64-09 (1) Michigan vs (16) Howard • R64-10 (8) Georgia vs (9) Saint Louis • R64-11 (5) Texas Tech vs (12) Akron • R64-12 (4) Alabama vs (13) Hofstra • R64-13 (6) Tennessee vs (11) Miami (Ohio) • R64-14 (3) Virginia vs (14) Wright State • R64-15 (7) Kentucky vs (10) Santa Clara • R64-16 (2) Iowa State vs (15) Tennessee State • R64-17 (1) Florida vs (16) Prairie View A&M • R64-18 (8) Clemson vs (9) Iowa • R64-19 (5) Vanderbilt vs (12) McNeese • R64-20 (4) Nebraska vs (13) Troy • R64-21 (6) North Carolina vs (11) VCU • R64-22 (3) Illinois vs (14) Penn • R64-23 (7) Saint Mary's vs (10) Texas A&M • R64-24 (2) Houston vs (15) Idaho • R64-25 (1) Arizona vs LIU • R64-26 (8) Villanova vs (9) Utah State • R64-27 (5) Wisconsin vs (12) High Point • R64-28 (4) Arkansas vs (13) Hawaii • R64-29 (6) BYU vs (11) Texas • R64-30 (3) Gonzaga vs (14) Kennesaw State • R64-31 (7) Miami vs (10) Missouri • R64-32 (2) Purdue vs (15) Queens · R64-01 (1) Duke vs (16) Siena • R64-02 (8) Ohio State vs (9) TCU • R64-03 (5) St. John's vs (12) Northern Iowa • R64-04 (4) Kansas vs (13) Cal Baptist • R64-05 (6) Louisville vs (11) South Florida • R64-06 (3) Michigan State vs (14) North Dakota State • R64-07 (7) UCLA vs (10) UCF • R64-08 (2) UConn vs (15) Furman • R64-09 (1) Michigan vs (16) Howard • R64-10 (8) Georgia vs (9) Saint Louis • R64-11 (5) Texas Tech vs (12) Akron • R64-12 (4) Alabama vs (13) Hofstra • R64-13 (6) Tennessee vs (11) Miami (Ohio) • R64-14 (3) Virginia vs (14) Wright State • R64-15 (7) Kentucky vs (10) Santa Clara • R64-16 (2) Iowa State vs (15) Tennessee State • R64-17 (1) Florida vs (16) Prairie View A&M • R64-18 (8) Clemson vs (9) Iowa • R64-19 (5) Vanderbilt vs (12) McNeese • R64-20 (4) Nebraska vs (13) Troy • R64-21 (6) North Carolina vs (11) VCU • R64-22 (3) Illinois vs (14) Penn • R64-23 (7) Saint Mary's vs (10) Texas A&M • R64-24 (2) Houston vs (15) Idaho • R64-25 (1) Arizona vs LIU • R64-26 (8) Villanova vs (9) Utah State • R64-27 (5) Wisconsin vs (12) High Point • R64-28 (4) Arkansas vs (13) Hawaii • R64-29 (6) BYU vs (11) Texas • R64-30 (3) Gonzaga vs (14) Kennesaw State • R64-31 (7) Miami vs (10) Missouri • R64-32 (2) Purdue vs (15) Queens
Overview & Charts
Visual analytics layer
Round of 64
32
Decided Picks
32
Coverage
32
Season
2026
Simulations
20000
Decided vs Undecided
Seed Bucket Distribution
Historical BPI (Top 25 Mean)
Prediction Lab
2026 preview-only model comparison and path analytics
Mode
preview
Models
10
Path Rows
12
High Entropy
13
Moderate Entropy
13
Model comparison is deterministic and preview-safe. It compares active model outputs without requiring live results.
Model Performance Scatter
User Alignment Detail
| Model | Matched | Compared | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaggle Strengths | 32 | 32 | 100.0% |
| Kaggle Strengths + Travel | 32 | 32 | 100.0% |
| Prediction Entropy Model | 12 | 12 | 100.0% |
| System (Travel OFF) | 32 | 32 | 100.0% |
| System (Travel ON) | 32 | 32 | 100.0% |
| Tournament Path Model | 12 | 12 | 100.0% |
| Hybrid | 31 | 32 | 96.9% |
| Seed Model | 30 | 32 | 93.8% |
| TeamRankings | 30 | 32 | 93.8% |
| TeamRankings + Travel | 30 | 32 | 93.8% |
Style Comparison
Style Comparison Detail
| Model | Favorite Rate | Upset Rate | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid | 93.8% | 3.1% | 32 |
| Kaggle Strengths | 90.6% | 6.2% | 32 |
| Kaggle Strengths + Travel | 90.6% | 6.2% | 32 |
| Prediction Entropy Model | 75.0% | 16.7% | 12 |
| Seed Model | 96.9% | 0.0% | 32 |
| System (Travel OFF) | 90.6% | 6.2% | 32 |
| System (Travel ON) | 90.6% | 6.2% | 32 |
| TeamRankings | 96.9% | 0.0% | 32 |
| TeamRankings + Travel | 96.9% | 0.0% | 32 |
| Tournament Path Model | 100.0% | 0.0% | 12 |
Tournament Path Strength
Tournament Path Model Detail
| Team | Seed | Path Strength | R32 Opponent | S16 Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 3 | 0.3147 | Tennessee | Kentucky |
| Florida | 1 | 0.3041 | Clemson | Vanderbilt |
| Kansas | 4 | 0.3011 | Northern Iowa | Duke |
| Louisville | 6 | 0.2793 | Michigan State | UCLA |
| Gonzaga | 3 | 0.2704 | BYU | Miami |
| North Carolina | 6 | 0.2534 | Illinois | Texas A&M |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 0.2482 | Arkansas | Villanova |
| Michigan | 1 | 0.2448 | Georgia | Texas Tech |
| Duke | 1 | 0.2240 | Ohio State | Kansas |
| Texas Tech | 5 | 0.2180 | Alabama | Michigan |
| Kentucky | 7 | 0.2044 | Iowa State | Virginia |
| Villanova | 8 | 0.1773 | Arizona | Wisconsin |
Path strength is deterministic and derived only from existing matchup probabilities across the first three survival rounds.
Entropy Volatility
Prediction Entropy Model Detail
| Rank | Matchup | Winner | Entropy | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona vs LIU | Arizona | 0.6931 | high |
| 2 | Miami vs Missouri | Miami | 0.6931 | high |
| 3 | Tennessee vs Miami (Ohio) | Tennessee | 0.6931 | high |
| 4 | UConn vs Furman | UConn | 0.6931 | high |
| 5 | Vanderbilt vs McNeese | Vanderbilt | 0.6931 | high |
| 6 | Saint Mary's vs Texas A&M | Texas A&M | 0.6931 | high |
| 7 | Clemson vs Iowa | Clemson | 0.6930 | high |
| 8 | BYU vs Texas | BYU | 0.6900 | high |
| 9 | Arkansas vs Hawaii | Arkansas | 0.6863 | high |
| 10 | Houston vs Idaho | Houston | 0.6822 | high |
| 11 | Ohio State vs TCU | Ohio State | 0.6815 | high |
| 12 | St. John's vs Northern Iowa | Northern Iowa | 0.6799 | high |
Entropy highlights high-variance Round-of-64 environments using existing model win probabilities only.
Confidence Distribution
Confidence Distribution Detail
| Bucket | Count |
|---|---|
| 0.50 - 0.55 | 8 |
| 0.55 - 0.60 | 4 |
| 0.60 - 0.65 | 1 |
| 0.65 - 0.70 | 1 |
| 0.70 - 0.75 | 5 |
| 0.75 - 0.80 | 5 |
| 0.80 - 0.85 | 4 |
| 0.85 - 0.90 | 3 |
| 0.90 - 0.95 | 1 |
| 0.95 - 1.00 | 0 |
Entropy Mix
Pick Differences
| Game | Matchup | Unique Picks | Model Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. John's vs Northern Iowa | 2 |
Hybrid: Northern Iowa
Kaggle Strengths: Northern Iowa
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: Northern Iowa
Prediction Entropy Model: Northern Iowa
Seed Model: St. John's
System (Travel OFF): Northern Iowa
System (Travel ON): Northern Iowa
TeamRankings: St. John's
TeamRankings + Travel: St. John's
|
| 22 | Saint Mary's vs Texas A&M | 2 |
Hybrid: Saint Mary's
Kaggle Strengths: Texas A&M
Kaggle Strengths + Travel: Texas A&M
Prediction Entropy Model: Texas A&M
Seed Model: Saint Mary's
System (Travel OFF): Texas A&M
System (Travel ON): Texas A&M
TeamRankings: Saint Mary's
TeamRankings + Travel: Saint Mary's
|
High / Moderate / Low entropy: 13 / 13 / 6