R64-01 (1) Auburn 83–63 (16) Alabama State (W: Auburn) • R64-02 (8) Louisville 75–89 (9) Creighton (W: Creighton) • R64-03 (5) Michigan 68–65 (12) UC San Diego (W: Michigan) • R64-04 (4) Texas A&M 80–71 (13) Yale (W: Texas A&M) • R64-05 (6) mississippi 71–64 (11) North Carolina (W: mississippi) • R64-06 (3) Iowa State 82–55 (14) Lipscomb (W: Iowa State) • R64-07 (7) Marquette 66–75 (10) New Mexico (W: New Mexico) • R64-08 (2) Michigan State 87–62 (15) Bryant (W: Michigan State) • R64-09 (1) Florida 95–69 (16) Norfolk State (W: Florida) • R64-10 (8) UConn 67–59 (9) Oklahoma (W: UConn) • R64-11 (5) Memphis 70–78 (12) Colorado State (W: Colorado State) • R64-12 (4) Maryland 81–49 (13) Grand Canyon (W: Maryland) • R64-13 (6) Missouri 57–67 (11) Drake (W: Drake) • R64-14 (3) Texas Tech 82–72 (14) UNCW (W: Texas Tech) • R64-15 (7) Kansas 72–79 (10) Arkansas (W: Arkansas) • R64-16 (2) St. John's 83–53 (15) Omaha (W: St. John's) • R64-17 (1) Duke 93–49 (16) Mount St. Mary's (W: Duke) • R64-18 (8) Mississippi State 72–75 (9) Baylor (W: Baylor) • R64-19 (5) Oregon 81–52 (12) Liberty (W: Oregon) • R64-20 (4) Arizona 93–65 (13) Akron (W: Arizona) • R64-21 (6) BYU 80–71 (11) VCU (W: BYU) • R64-22 (3) Wisconsin 85–66 (14) Montana (W: Wisconsin) • R64-23 (7) Saint Mary's 59–56 (10) Vanderbilt (W: Saint Mary's) • R64-24 (2) Alabama 90–81 (15) Robert Morris (W: Alabama) • R64-25 (1) Houston 78–40 (16) SIU Edwardsville (W: Houston) • R64-26 (8) Gonzaga 89–68 (9) Georgia (W: Gonzaga) • R64-27 (5) Clemson 67–69 (12) McNeese (W: McNeese) • R64-28 (4) Purdue 75–63 (13) High Point (W: Purdue) • R64-29 (6) Illinois 86–73 (11) Xavier (W: Illinois) • R64-30 (3) Kentucky 76–57 (14) Troy (W: Kentucky) • R64-31 (7) UCLA 72–47 (10) Utah State (W: UCLA) • R64-32 (2) Tennessee 77–62 (15) Wofford (W: Tennessee) • R32-01 (1) Auburn 82–70 (9) Creighton (W: Auburn) • R32-02 (5) Michigan 91–79 (4) Texas A&M (W: Michigan) • R32-03 (6) mississippi 91–78 (3) Iowa State (W: mississippi) • R32-04 (10) New Mexico 63–71 (2) Michigan State (W: Michigan State) • R32-05 (1) Florida 77–75 (8) UConn (W: Florida) • R32-06 (12) Colorado State 71–72 (4) Maryland (W: Maryland) • R32-07 (11) Drake 64–77 (3) Texas Tech (W: Texas Tech) • R32-08 (10) Arkansas 75–66 (2) St. John's (W: Arkansas) • R32-09 (1) Duke 89–66 (9) Baylor (W: Duke) • R32-10 (5) Oregon 83–87 (4) Arizona (W: Arizona) • R32-11 (6) BYU 91–89 (3) Wisconsin (W: BYU) • R32-12 (7) Saint Mary's 66–80 (2) Alabama (W: Alabama) • R32-13 (1) Houston 81–76 (8) Gonzaga (W: Houston) • R32-14 (12) McNeese 62–76 (4) Purdue (W: Purdue) • R32-15 (6) Illinois 75–84 (3) Kentucky (W: Kentucky) • R32-16 (7) UCLA 58–67 (2) Tennessee (W: Tennessee) • S16-01 (1) Auburn 78–65 (5) Michigan (W: Auburn) • S16-02 (6) mississippi 70–73 (2) Michigan State (W: Michigan State) • S16-03 (1) Florida 87–71 (4) Maryland (W: Florida) • S16-04 (3) Texas Tech 85–83 (10) Arkansas (W: Texas Tech) • S16-05 (1) Duke 100–93 (4) Arizona (W: Duke) • S16-06 (6) BYU 88–113 (2) Alabama (W: Alabama) • S16-07 (1) Houston 62–60 (4) Purdue (W: Houston) • S16-08 (3) Kentucky 65–78 (2) Tennessee (W: Tennessee) • E8-01 (1) Auburn 70–64 (2) Michigan State (W: Auburn) • E8-02 (1) Florida 84–79 (3) Texas Tech (W: Florida) • E8-03 (1) Duke 85–65 (2) Alabama (W: Duke) • E8-04 (1) Houston 69–50 (2) Tennessee (W: Houston) • F4-01 (1) Auburn 73–79 (1) Florida (W: Florida) • F4-02 (1) Duke 67–70 (1) Houston (W: Houston) • CH-01 (1) Florida 65–63 (1) Houston (W: Florida) · R64-01 (1) Auburn 83–63 (16) Alabama State (W: Auburn) • R64-02 (8) Louisville 75–89 (9) Creighton (W: Creighton) • R64-03 (5) Michigan 68–65 (12) UC San Diego (W: Michigan) • R64-04 (4) Texas A&M 80–71 (13) Yale (W: Texas A&M) • R64-05 (6) mississippi 71–64 (11) North Carolina (W: mississippi) • R64-06 (3) Iowa State 82–55 (14) Lipscomb (W: Iowa State) • R64-07 (7) Marquette 66–75 (10) New Mexico (W: New Mexico) • R64-08 (2) Michigan State 87–62 (15) Bryant (W: Michigan State) • R64-09 (1) Florida 95–69 (16) Norfolk State (W: Florida) • R64-10 (8) UConn 67–59 (9) Oklahoma (W: UConn) • R64-11 (5) Memphis 70–78 (12) Colorado State (W: Colorado State) • R64-12 (4) Maryland 81–49 (13) Grand Canyon (W: Maryland) • R64-13 (6) Missouri 57–67 (11) Drake (W: Drake) • R64-14 (3) Texas Tech 82–72 (14) UNCW (W: Texas Tech) • R64-15 (7) Kansas 72–79 (10) Arkansas (W: Arkansas) • R64-16 (2) St. John's 83–53 (15) Omaha (W: St. John's) • R64-17 (1) Duke 93–49 (16) Mount St. Mary's (W: Duke) • R64-18 (8) Mississippi State 72–75 (9) Baylor (W: Baylor) • R64-19 (5) Oregon 81–52 (12) Liberty (W: Oregon) • R64-20 (4) Arizona 93–65 (13) Akron (W: Arizona) • R64-21 (6) BYU 80–71 (11) VCU (W: BYU) • R64-22 (3) Wisconsin 85–66 (14) Montana (W: Wisconsin) • R64-23 (7) Saint Mary's 59–56 (10) Vanderbilt (W: Saint Mary's) • R64-24 (2) Alabama 90–81 (15) Robert Morris (W: Alabama) • R64-25 (1) Houston 78–40 (16) SIU Edwardsville (W: Houston) • R64-26 (8) Gonzaga 89–68 (9) Georgia (W: Gonzaga) • R64-27 (5) Clemson 67–69 (12) McNeese (W: McNeese) • R64-28 (4) Purdue 75–63 (13) High Point (W: Purdue) • R64-29 (6) Illinois 86–73 (11) Xavier (W: Illinois) • R64-30 (3) Kentucky 76–57 (14) Troy (W: Kentucky) • R64-31 (7) UCLA 72–47 (10) Utah State (W: UCLA) • R64-32 (2) Tennessee 77–62 (15) Wofford (W: Tennessee) • R32-01 (1) Auburn 82–70 (9) Creighton (W: Auburn) • R32-02 (5) Michigan 91–79 (4) Texas A&M (W: Michigan) • R32-03 (6) mississippi 91–78 (3) Iowa State (W: mississippi) • R32-04 (10) New Mexico 63–71 (2) Michigan State (W: Michigan State) • R32-05 (1) Florida 77–75 (8) UConn (W: Florida) • R32-06 (12) Colorado State 71–72 (4) Maryland (W: Maryland) • R32-07 (11) Drake 64–77 (3) Texas Tech (W: Texas Tech) • R32-08 (10) Arkansas 75–66 (2) St. John's (W: Arkansas) • R32-09 (1) Duke 89–66 (9) Baylor (W: Duke) • R32-10 (5) Oregon 83–87 (4) Arizona (W: Arizona) • R32-11 (6) BYU 91–89 (3) Wisconsin (W: BYU) • R32-12 (7) Saint Mary's 66–80 (2) Alabama (W: Alabama) • R32-13 (1) Houston 81–76 (8) Gonzaga (W: Houston) • R32-14 (12) McNeese 62–76 (4) Purdue (W: Purdue) • R32-15 (6) Illinois 75–84 (3) Kentucky (W: Kentucky) • R32-16 (7) UCLA 58–67 (2) Tennessee (W: Tennessee) • S16-01 (1) Auburn 78–65 (5) Michigan (W: Auburn) • S16-02 (6) mississippi 70–73 (2) Michigan State (W: Michigan State) • S16-03 (1) Florida 87–71 (4) Maryland (W: Florida) • S16-04 (3) Texas Tech 85–83 (10) Arkansas (W: Texas Tech) • S16-05 (1) Duke 100–93 (4) Arizona (W: Duke) • S16-06 (6) BYU 88–113 (2) Alabama (W: Alabama) • S16-07 (1) Houston 62–60 (4) Purdue (W: Houston) • S16-08 (3) Kentucky 65–78 (2) Tennessee (W: Tennessee) • E8-01 (1) Auburn 70–64 (2) Michigan State (W: Auburn) • E8-02 (1) Florida 84–79 (3) Texas Tech (W: Florida) • E8-03 (1) Duke 85–65 (2) Alabama (W: Duke) • E8-04 (1) Houston 69–50 (2) Tennessee (W: Houston) • F4-01 (1) Auburn 73–79 (1) Florida (W: Florida) • F4-02 (1) Duke 67–70 (1) Houston (W: Houston) • CH-01 (1) Florida 65–63 (1) Houston (W: Florida) · R64-01 (1) Auburn 83–63 (16) Alabama State (W: Auburn) • R64-02 (8) Louisville 75–89 (9) Creighton (W: Creighton) • R64-03 (5) Michigan 68–65 (12) UC San Diego (W: Michigan) • R64-04 (4) Texas A&M 80–71 (13) Yale (W: Texas A&M) • R64-05 (6) mississippi 71–64 (11) North Carolina (W: mississippi) • R64-06 (3) Iowa State 82–55 (14) Lipscomb (W: Iowa State) • R64-07 (7) Marquette 66–75 (10) New Mexico (W: New Mexico) • R64-08 (2) Michigan State 87–62 (15) Bryant (W: Michigan State) • R64-09 (1) Florida 95–69 (16) Norfolk State (W: Florida) • R64-10 (8) UConn 67–59 (9) Oklahoma (W: UConn) • R64-11 (5) Memphis 70–78 (12) Colorado State (W: Colorado State) • R64-12 (4) Maryland 81–49 (13) Grand Canyon (W: Maryland) • R64-13 (6) Missouri 57–67 (11) Drake (W: Drake) • R64-14 (3) Texas Tech 82–72 (14) UNCW (W: Texas Tech) • R64-15 (7) Kansas 72–79 (10) Arkansas (W: Arkansas) • R64-16 (2) St. John's 83–53 (15) Omaha (W: St. John's) • R64-17 (1) Duke 93–49 (16) Mount St. Mary's (W: Duke) • R64-18 (8) Mississippi State 72–75 (9) Baylor (W: Baylor) • R64-19 (5) Oregon 81–52 (12) Liberty (W: Oregon) • R64-20 (4) Arizona 93–65 (13) Akron (W: Arizona) • R64-21 (6) BYU 80–71 (11) VCU (W: BYU) • R64-22 (3) Wisconsin 85–66 (14) Montana (W: Wisconsin) • R64-23 (7) Saint Mary's 59–56 (10) Vanderbilt (W: Saint Mary's) • R64-24 (2) Alabama 90–81 (15) Robert Morris (W: Alabama) • R64-25 (1) Houston 78–40 (16) SIU Edwardsville (W: Houston) • R64-26 (8) Gonzaga 89–68 (9) Georgia (W: Gonzaga) • R64-27 (5) Clemson 67–69 (12) McNeese (W: McNeese) • R64-28 (4) Purdue 75–63 (13) High Point (W: Purdue) • R64-29 (6) Illinois 86–73 (11) Xavier (W: Illinois) • R64-30 (3) Kentucky 76–57 (14) Troy (W: Kentucky) • R64-31 (7) UCLA 72–47 (10) Utah State (W: UCLA) • R64-32 (2) Tennessee 77–62 (15) Wofford (W: Tennessee) • R32-01 (1) Auburn 82–70 (9) Creighton (W: Auburn) • R32-02 (5) Michigan 91–79 (4) Texas A&M (W: Michigan) • R32-03 (6) mississippi 91–78 (3) Iowa State (W: mississippi) • R32-04 (10) New Mexico 63–71 (2) Michigan State (W: Michigan State) • R32-05 (1) Florida 77–75 (8) UConn (W: Florida) • R32-06 (12) Colorado State 71–72 (4) Maryland (W: Maryland) • R32-07 (11) Drake 64–77 (3) Texas Tech (W: Texas Tech) • R32-08 (10) Arkansas 75–66 (2) St. John's (W: Arkansas) • R32-09 (1) Duke 89–66 (9) Baylor (W: Duke) • R32-10 (5) Oregon 83–87 (4) Arizona (W: Arizona) • R32-11 (6) BYU 91–89 (3) Wisconsin (W: BYU) • R32-12 (7) Saint Mary's 66–80 (2) Alabama (W: Alabama) • R32-13 (1) Houston 81–76 (8) Gonzaga (W: Houston) • R32-14 (12) McNeese 62–76 (4) Purdue (W: Purdue) • R32-15 (6) Illinois 75–84 (3) Kentucky (W: Kentucky) • R32-16 (7) UCLA 58–67 (2) Tennessee (W: Tennessee) • S16-01 (1) Auburn 78–65 (5) Michigan (W: Auburn) • S16-02 (6) mississippi 70–73 (2) Michigan State (W: Michigan State) • S16-03 (1) Florida 87–71 (4) Maryland (W: Florida) • S16-04 (3) Texas Tech 85–83 (10) Arkansas (W: Texas Tech) • S16-05 (1) Duke 100–93 (4) Arizona (W: Duke) • S16-06 (6) BYU 88–113 (2) Alabama (W: Alabama) • S16-07 (1) Houston 62–60 (4) Purdue (W: Houston) • S16-08 (3) Kentucky 65–78 (2) Tennessee (W: Tennessee) • E8-01 (1) Auburn 70–64 (2) Michigan State (W: Auburn) • E8-02 (1) Florida 84–79 (3) Texas Tech (W: Florida) • E8-03 (1) Duke 85–65 (2) Alabama (W: Duke) • E8-04 (1) Houston 69–50 (2) Tennessee (W: Houston) • F4-01 (1) Auburn 73–79 (1) Florida (W: Florida) • F4-02 (1) Duke 67–70 (1) Houston (W: Houston) • CH-01 (1) Florida 65–63 (1) Houston (W: Florida)
Overview
Quick status + headline metrics (informational; not wagering)
Season: 2025
Scale: 1.00
Sims: 20000
Round of 64 coverage
32/32
System correct (R64)
--/32
System correct (Total)
--/63
System rate
--%
Chalk index
0.88
Upsets
2
Agreement vs Disagreement
Model focus
Chalk vs Upsets
R64 focus
Agreement by Model
Top shown
What-if
Flip-only: one system-wrong game -> Run. Reset required before next flip.
READY
Select a game to flip first.
Flip option (system-wrong only)
Historical results are loaded from the official 2025 feed.
Champion: Florida
Model Leaderboard
Correct out of 63 (sorted)
Driven by deterministic truth IDs (63-game).
By-Round Accuracy
R64 -> CH (0-1 axis)
Uses stable IDs (R64-01..CH-01).
Confidence Distribution
Histogram of p(winner) buckets
Built from 32 R64 probabilities.
Calibration
Reliability buckets (actual vs predicted)
Uses Brier/ECE buckets when available.
Scenario Lab
Adjust assumptions and re-run simulations
Scenario Controls
Use the full width; closed by default
What this changes
Scale controls risk posture (chalk vs upset tilt).
Sims controls stability (Monte Carlo variance).
Travel applies site-based travel adjustments (k controls sensitivity).
What-if enables one deterministic flip against 2025 truth to study propagation.
UX-first goal: you should see the impacts immediately in Overview.
Scale
Sims
Travel
OFF
Travel k
What-if mode
OFF
READY
What-if controls appear inside Overview when enabled (2025 only).
Overlays
OFF
Advanced
OFF
This page focuses on analytics. No payout percentile, no betting support.
Model Response
What changed?
Travel analytics are unavailable (missing travel matrix).
Additional Analytics
Advanced breakdowns (optional)
Historical Results
Official outcomes by round
Historical results by round (official outcomes).
Champion: Florida
| Round | Games | Winners |
|---|---|---|
| Round of 64 | 32 | Auburn, Creighton, Michigan, Texas A&M, mississippi, Iowa State, New Mexico, Michigan State, Florida, UConn ... |
| Round of 32 | 16 | Auburn, Michigan, mississippi, Michigan State, Florida, Maryland, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Duke, Arizona ... |
| Sweet 16 | 8 | Auburn, Michigan State, Florida, Texas Tech, Duke, Alabama, Houston, Tennessee |
| Elite 8 | 4 | Auburn, Florida, Duke, Houston |
| Final Four | 2 | Florida, Houston |
| Championship | 1 | Florida |
Travel Impact
R64 flips and Δp
Travel analytics are unavailable (missing travel matrix).
Uncertainty & Stability
Simulation spread / entropy
Uncertainty & stability (Round of 64). Sims=20000. Showing top 10 most uncertain games.
System (Travel OFF) — most uncertain
| Game | Winner | p(winner) | p05 | p95 | Spread | Entropy | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #9: (8) UConn vs (9) Oklahoma | (8) UConn | 0.500 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #13: (3) Texas Tech vs (14) UNCW | (3) Texas Tech | 0.500 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #15: (2) St. John's vs (15) Omaha | (2) St. John's | 0.500 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #26: (5) Clemson vs (12) McNeese | (5) Clemson | 0.500 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #17: (8) Mississippi State vs (9) Baylor | (9) Baylor | 0.509 | 0.503 | 0.515 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #4: (6) mississippi vs (11) North Carolina | (6) mississippi | 0.512 | 0.506 | 0.518 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #6: (7) Marquette vs (10) New Mexico | (7) Marquette | 0.520 | 0.514 | 0.526 | 0.012 | 0.692 | — |
| #20: (6) BYU vs (11) VCU | (6) BYU | 0.524 | 0.518 | 0.530 | 0.012 | 0.692 | — |
| #28: (6) Illinois vs (11) Xavier | (6) Illinois | 0.528 | 0.522 | 0.533 | 0.012 | 0.692 | — |
| #1: (8) Louisville vs (9) Creighton | (8) Louisville | 0.528 | 0.522 | 0.534 | 0.012 | 0.692 | — |
System (Travel ON) — most uncertain
| Game | Winner | p(winner) | p05 | p95 | Spread | Entropy | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #9: (8) UConn vs (9) Oklahoma | (8) UConn | 0.500 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #13: (3) Texas Tech vs (14) UNCW | (3) Texas Tech | 0.500 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #15: (2) St. John's vs (15) Omaha | (2) St. John's | 0.500 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #26: (5) Clemson vs (12) McNeese | (5) Clemson | 0.500 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #17: (8) Mississippi State vs (9) Baylor | (9) Baylor | 0.509 | 0.503 | 0.515 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #4: (6) mississippi vs (11) North Carolina | (6) mississippi | 0.512 | 0.506 | 0.518 | 0.012 | 0.693 | — |
| #6: (7) Marquette vs (10) New Mexico | (7) Marquette | 0.520 | 0.514 | 0.526 | 0.012 | 0.692 | — |
| #20: (6) BYU vs (11) VCU | (6) BYU | 0.524 | 0.518 | 0.530 | 0.012 | 0.692 | — |
| #28: (6) Illinois vs (11) Xavier | (6) Illinois | 0.528 | 0.522 | 0.533 | 0.012 | 0.692 | — |
| #1: (8) Louisville vs (9) Creighton | (8) Louisville | 0.528 | 0.522 | 0.534 | 0.012 | 0.692 | — |
Note: uncertainty values are approximations of how the observed win-rate could vary across sims (fast, stable). Entropy is higher near 50/50.
Calibration
Brier / ECE buckets (when available)
Calibration (model winner probabilities vs 2025 outcomes). Lower Brier/ECE is better. Buckets are grouped by p(winner).
System (Travel OFF)
Brier: 0.1727
ECE: 0.2660
| Bucket | n | avg p | actual | Δ (actual - p) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50–0.55 | 17 | 0.522 | 0.765 | 0.243 |
| 0.55–0.60 | 1 | 0.571 | 0.000 | -0.571 |
| 0.60–0.65 | 3 | 0.624 | 1.000 | 0.376 |
| 0.65–0.70 | 3 | 0.669 | 1.000 | 0.331 |
| 0.70–0.75 | 2 | 0.729 | 1.000 | 0.271 |
| 0.75–0.80 | 2 | 0.753 | 1.000 | 0.247 |
| 0.80–0.85 | 2 | 0.813 | 1.000 | 0.187 |
| 0.85–0.90 | 2 | 0.857 | 1.000 | 0.143 |
System (Travel ON)
Brier: 0.1727
ECE: 0.2660
| Bucket | n | avg p | actual | Δ (actual - p) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50–0.55 | 17 | 0.522 | 0.765 | 0.243 |
| 0.55–0.60 | 1 | 0.571 | 0.000 | -0.571 |
| 0.60–0.65 | 3 | 0.624 | 1.000 | 0.376 |
| 0.65–0.70 | 3 | 0.669 | 1.000 | 0.331 |
| 0.70–0.75 | 2 | 0.729 | 1.000 | 0.271 |
| 0.75–0.80 | 2 | 0.753 | 1.000 | 0.247 |
| 0.80–0.85 | 2 | 0.813 | 1.000 | 0.187 |
| 0.85–0.90 | 2 | 0.857 | 1.000 | 0.143 |
Flip Analysis
Panel-only: live rows + read-only selection
Flip Candidates
Flip candidates are the lowest-confidence current picks, derived only from existing Round-of-64 probability rows.
Top Impact
Top 10
Sorted by p(win) asc
Filters
No filters
Visible 0/0
| Game | Seeds | Ripple | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #13 (3) Texas Tech vs (14) UNCW | 3 / 14 | 0.50 |
|
1.0 | +5.0 |
| #15 (2) St. John's vs (15) Omaha | 2 / 15 | 0.50 |
|
1.0 | +5.0 |
| #26 (5) Clemson vs (12) McNeese | 5 / 12 | 0.50 |
|
1.0 | +5.0 |
| #9 (8) UConn vs (9) Oklahoma | 8 / 9 | 0.50 |
|
1.0 | +5.0 |
| #17 (9) Baylor vs (8) Mississippi State | 9 / 8 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #4 (6) mississippi vs (11) North Carolina | 6 / 11 | 0.51 |
|
1.0 | +4.9 |
| #6 (7) Marquette vs (10) New Mexico | 7 / 10 | 0.52 |
|
1.0 | +4.8 |
| #20 (6) BYU vs (11) VCU | 6 / 11 | 0.52 |
|
1.0 | +4.8 |
| #28 (6) Illinois vs (11) Xavier | 6 / 11 | 0.53 |
|
0.9 | +4.7 |
| #1 (8) Louisville vs (9) Creighton | 8 / 9 | 0.53 |
|
0.9 | +4.7 |
| No flip candidates match the active filters. | |||||
Selected Candidate
Current row selection and direct flip probabilities.
#13
Picked winner
(3) Texas Tech
Picked loser
(14) UNCW
p(win)
0.500
Flip p
0.500
Confidence gap
0.000
Impact Preview
Heuristic only. No simulation rerun and no bracket mutation.
#13
2 rounds
Propagation
Moderate ripple
Volatility
Medium
Upset magnitude
11 seeds
Toss-up profile
Yes
Ripple
4/8
Impact
1.000
Delta
+5.000
Heuristic preview only. This panel does not run a new simulation and does not mutate the bracket.
Path Preview
Deterministic bracket path only. No simulation rerun and no bracket mutation.
#13
Deterministic path
Flip Game
(14) UNCW
Flipped winner
Round of 32
(6) Missouri
Round of 32 opponent
Sweet 16
--
Projected stop vs Missouri
Elite 8
--
Elite 8 path unavailable
Path team
(14) UNCW
Flip risk
0.500
Confidence gap
0.000
Delta
+5.000
Flipping game #13 inserts UNCW into the deterministic bracket. The projected next opponent is Missouri, and the path ends in the Round of 32.
Assistant
Bracket Q&A + scenario help (login + tokens required)
Panel: full width · 350px height
Login and tokens are required to use the assistant.
Locked until login + tokens.
Live Bracket Leverage is available for completed rounds (historical leverage uses official results).