March Madness Predictor

Model Leaderboard

Best: Pinned Production

Historical Model Performance Summary (2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)

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Best model

Pinned Production

Best R64 accuracy

71.9%

Best tournament accuracy

73.0%

Champion hits

0 / 6

Historical model comparison

Model	R64 Accuracy	Tournament Accuracy	ROC AUC	LogLoss	Brier	Champion Hits
Pinned Production	71.9%	73.0%	0.757	0.639	0.224	0 / 6
Council	70.8%	72.5%	0.748	0.635	0.222	0 / 6
Hybrid	70.8%	72.5%	0.740	0.633	0.220	0 / 6

Questions to explore

Performance gap

Why does the top-ranked model outperform the others historically?

Upset behavior

Which model appears strongest in close or upset-prone Round-of-64 games?

Champion forecasting

Which model best identifies eventual champions across these seasons?

Travel sensitivity

How much of the historical performance spread could be explained by travel-related effects?

Season 2025

R64 Acc: 81.2% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 0

2025 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2025_full.json

Deterministic champion

(2) Houston

Actual champion

(1) Florida

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

81.2% (26 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

0

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.729

LogLoss

0.599

Brier

0.204

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

81.2% (26 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.832

LogLoss

0.631

Brier

0.220

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

82.5% (52 / 63)

Team advancement accuracy (no matchup alignment required)

Round	Advanced	Correct	Accuracy
Round of 64	32	24	75.0%
Round of 32	16	13	81.2%
Sweet 16	8	6	75.0%
Elite 8	4	4	100.0%
Final Four	2	1	50.0%
Championship	1	0	0.0%

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(1) Florida

Prob

2.80%

Rank

#6

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

(1) Florida

Games

6

Average win probability

54.1%

Difficulty score

0.459

Difficulty label

Hard

Hardest game

Championship vs (1) Houston (49.7%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	(16) Norfolk St.	67.6%	0.324
Round of 32	(8) Connecticut	52.8%	0.472
Sweet 16	(4) Maryland	50.8%	0.492
Elite 8	(3) Texas Tech	53.5%	0.465
Final Four	(1) Auburn	49.9%	0.501
Championship	(1) Houston	49.7%	0.503

Upset metrics (optional)

Upset games

11

Upset correct (deterministic)

3

Upset accuracy

27.3%

Season 2024

R64 Acc: 56.2% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 0

2024 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2024_full.json

Deterministic champion

(2) Houston

Actual champion

Connecticut

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

56.2% (18 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

0

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.732

LogLoss

0.611

Brier

0.210

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

56.2% (18 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.729

LogLoss

0.633

Brier

0.221

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

68.3% (43 / 63)

Team advancement accuracy (no matchup alignment required)

Round	Advanced	Correct	Accuracy
Round of 64	32	16	50.0%
Round of 32	16	11	68.8%
Sweet 16	8	4	50.0%
Elite 8	4	2	50.0%
Final Four	2	1	50.0%
Championship	1	0	0.0%

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(2) UConn

Prob

2.00%

Rank

#22

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

Connecticut

Games

6

Average win probability

54.8%

Difficulty score

0.452

Difficulty label

Hard

Hardest game

Championship vs (1) Purdue (50.2%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	(16) Stetson	69.6%	0.304
Round of 32	(9) Northwestern	53.2%	0.468
Sweet 16	(5) San Diego St.	52.8%	0.472
Elite 8	(3) Illinois	51.4%	0.486
Final Four	(4) Alabama	51.6%	0.484
Championship	(1) Purdue	50.2%	0.498

Upset metrics (optional)

Upset games

19

Upset correct (deterministic)

3

Upset accuracy

15.8%

Season 2023

R64 Acc: 75.0% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 0

2023 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2023_full.json

Deterministic champion

(2) UConn

Actual champion

Connecticut

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

75.0% (24 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

0

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.423

LogLoss

0.653

Brier

0.230

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

75.0% (24 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.683

LogLoss

0.658

Brier

0.233

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

73.0% (46 / 63)

Team advancement accuracy (no matchup alignment required)

Round	Advanced	Correct	Accuracy
Round of 64	32	21	65.6%
Round of 32	16	10	62.5%
Sweet 16	8	1	12.5%
Elite 8	4	1	25.0%
Final Four	2	1	50.0%
Championship	1	1	100.0%

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(2) UConn

Prob

2.00%

Rank

#20

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

Connecticut

Games

6

Average win probability

52.4%

Difficulty score

0.476

Difficulty label

Hard

Hardest game

Championship vs (5) San Diego St. (51.1%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	(13) Iona	55.8%	0.442
Round of 32	(5) Saint Mary's	51.4%	0.486
Sweet 16	(8) Arkansas	52.3%	0.477
Elite 8	(3) Gonzaga	51.1%	0.489
Final Four	(5) Miami (FL)	52.5%	0.475
Championship	(5) San Diego St.	51.1%	0.489

Upset metrics (optional)

Upset games

19

Upset correct (deterministic)

4

Upset accuracy

21.1%

Season 2022

R64 Acc: 78.1% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 0

2022 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2022_full.json

Deterministic champion

(3) Gonzaga

Actual champion

(4) Kansas

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

78.1% (25 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

0

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.800

LogLoss

0.607

Brier

0.208

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

78.1% (25 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.790

LogLoss

0.639

Brier

0.223

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

73.0% (46 / 63)

Team advancement accuracy (no matchup alignment required)

Round	Advanced	Correct	Accuracy
Round of 64	32	23	71.9%
Round of 32	16	11	68.8%
Sweet 16	8	3	37.5%
Elite 8	4	1	25.0%
Final Four	2	0	0.0%
Championship	1	0	0.0%

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(4) Kansas

Prob

2.40%

Rank

#12

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

(4) Kansas

Games

6

Average win probability

52.4%

Difficulty score

0.476

Difficulty label

Hard

Hardest game

Final Four vs (2) Villanova (50.6%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	(16) Texas Southern	51.4%	0.486
Round of 32	(9) Creighton	54.6%	0.454
Sweet 16	(4) Providence	53.1%	0.469
Elite 8	(10) Miami (FL)	53.2%	0.468
Final Four	(2) Villanova	50.6%	0.494
Championship	(8) North Carolina	51.2%	0.488

Upset metrics (optional)

Upset games

21

Upset correct (deterministic)

7

Upset accuracy

33.3%

Season 2021

R64 Acc: 68.8% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 0

2021 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2021_full.json

Deterministic champion

(3) Gonzaga

Actual champion

Baylor

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

68.8% (22 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

0

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.686

LogLoss

0.629

Brier

0.219

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

68.8% (22 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.650

LogLoss

0.652

Brier

0.230

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

65.1% (41 / 63)

Team advancement accuracy (no matchup alignment required)

Round	Advanced	Correct	Accuracy
Round of 64	32	20	62.5%
Round of 32	16	7	43.8%
Sweet 16	8	4	50.0%
Elite 8	4	3	75.0%
Final Four	2	1	50.0%
Championship	1	0	0.0%

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

baylor

Prob

2.00%

Rank

#17

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

Baylor

Games

6

Average win probability

53.4%

Difficulty score

0.466

Difficulty label

Hard

Hardest game

Championship vs (1) Gonzaga (49.4%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	(16) Hartford	66.9%	0.331
Round of 32	(9) Wisconsin	51.2%	0.488
Sweet 16	(5) Villanova	51.4%	0.486
Elite 8	(3) Arkansas	51.6%	0.484
Final Four	(2) Houston	49.8%	0.502
Championship	(1) Gonzaga	49.4%	0.506

Upset metrics (optional)

Upset games

19

Upset correct (deterministic)

3

Upset accuracy

15.8%

Season 2019

R64 Acc: 71.9% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 0

2019 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2019_full.json

Deterministic champion

(3) Gonzaga

Actual champion

(3) Virginia

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

71.9% (23 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

0

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.883

LogLoss

0.598

Brier

0.204

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

71.9% (23 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.858

LogLoss

0.624

Brier

0.216

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

76.2% (48 / 63)

Team advancement accuracy (no matchup alignment required)

Round	Advanced	Correct	Accuracy
Round of 64	32	21	65.6%
Round of 32	16	15	93.8%
Sweet 16	8	4	50.0%
Elite 8	4	1	25.0%
Final Four	2	1	50.0%
Championship	1	0	0.0%

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(3) Virginia

Prob

2.40%

Rank

#12

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

(3) Virginia

Games

6

Average win probability

54.2%

Difficulty score

0.458

Difficulty label

Hard

Hardest game

Elite 8 vs (3) Purdue (50.6%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	(16) Gardner–Webb	65.9%	0.341
Round of 32	(9) Oklahoma	53.1%	0.469
Sweet 16	(12) Oregon	53.2%	0.468
Elite 8	(3) Purdue	50.6%	0.494
Final Four	(5) Auburn	50.8%	0.492
Championship	(3) Texas Tech	51.8%	0.482

Upset metrics (optional)

Upset games

20

Upset correct (deterministic)

6

Upset accuracy

30.0%