March Madness Predictor

Model Leaderboard

Best: Council

Historical Model Performance Summary (2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)

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Best model

Council

Best R64 accuracy

73.4%

Best tournament accuracy

73.5%

Champion hits

0 / 6

Historical model comparison

Model	R64 Accuracy	Tournament Accuracy	ROC AUC	LogLoss	Brier	Champion Hits
Council	73.4%	73.5%	0.760	0.605	0.208	0 / 6
Pinned Production	73.4%	72.8%	0.759	0.610	0.211	1 / 6
Hybrid	72.9%	73.0%	0.756	0.601	0.207	0 / 6

Questions to explore

Performance gap

Why does the top-ranked model outperform the others historically?

Upset behavior

Which model appears strongest in close or upset-prone Round-of-64 games?

Champion forecasting

Which model best identifies eventual champions across these seasons?

Travel sensitivity

How much of the historical performance spread could be explained by travel-related effects?

Season 2025

R64 Acc: 84.4% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 31

2025 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2025_full.json

Deterministic champion

(2) Houston

Actual champion

(1) Florida

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

84.4% (27 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

31

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.811

LogLoss

0.525

Brier

0.173

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

84.4% (27 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.842

LogLoss

0.590

Brier

0.202

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

81.0% (51 / 63)

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(1) Florida

Prob

3.70%

Rank

#4

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

(1) Florida

Games

6

Average win probability

55.3%

Difficulty score

0.447

Difficulty label

Medium

Hardest game

Championship vs (2) Houston (49.3%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	Norfolk State	80.2%	0.198
Round of 32	(2) UConn	50.0%	0.500
Sweet 16	Maryland	51.7%	0.483
Elite 8	(5) Texas Tech	51.1%	0.489
Final Four	Auburn	49.7%	0.503
Championship	(2) Houston	49.3%	0.507

Season 2024

R64 Acc: 62.5% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 31

2024 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2024_full.json

Deterministic champion

(2) UConn

Actual champion

(2) UConn

Champion correct

Yes

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

62.5% (20 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

31

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.727

LogLoss

0.575

Brier

0.197

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

62.5% (20 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.717

LogLoss

0.611

Brier

0.212

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

69.8% (44 / 63)

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(2) UConn

Prob

1.30%

Rank

#36

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

(2) UConn

Games

6

Average win probability

50.0%

Difficulty score

0.500

Difficulty label

Hard

Hardest game

Round of 64 vs Stetson (50.0%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	Stetson	50.0%	0.500
Round of 32	Northwestern	50.0%	0.500
Sweet 16	San Diego State	50.0%	0.500
Elite 8	(3) Illinois	50.0%	0.500
Final Four	(4) Alabama	50.0%	0.500
Championship	(2) Purdue	50.0%	0.500

Season 2023

R64 Acc: 75.0% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 31

2023 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2023_full.json

Deterministic champion

(4) Alabama

Actual champion

(2) UConn

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

75.0% (24 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

31

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.526

LogLoss

0.632

Brier

0.218

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

75.0% (24 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.683

LogLoss

0.643

Brier

0.225

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

68.3% (43 / 63)

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(2) UConn

Prob

1.60%

Rank

#32

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

(2) UConn

Games

6

Average win probability

50.0%

Difficulty score

0.500

Difficulty label

Hard

Hardest game

Round of 64 vs Iona (50.0%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	Iona	50.0%	0.500
Round of 32	(7) Saint Mary's	50.0%	0.500
Sweet 16	(4) Arkansas	50.0%	0.500
Elite 8	(3) Gonzaga	50.0%	0.500
Final Four	Miami (FL)	50.0%	0.500
Championship	San Diego State	50.0%	0.500

Season 2022

R64 Acc: 78.1% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 31

2022 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2022_full.json

Deterministic champion

(3) Gonzaga

Actual champion

(4) Kansas

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

78.1% (25 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

31

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.820

LogLoss

0.556

Brier

0.186

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

78.1% (25 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.798

LogLoss

0.610

Brier

0.211

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

71.4% (45 / 63)

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(4) Kansas

Prob

3.60%

Rank

#3

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

(4) Kansas

Games

6

Average win probability

59.4%

Difficulty score

0.406

Difficulty label

Medium

Hardest game

Final Four vs (8) Villanova (51.5%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	Texas Southern	79.2%	0.208
Round of 32	Creighton	59.1%	0.409
Sweet 16	Providence	56.5%	0.435
Elite 8	Miami (FL)	57.1%	0.429
Final Four	(8) Villanova	51.5%	0.485
Championship	(6) North Carolina	53.0%	0.470

Season 2021

R64 Acc: 71.9% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 31

2021 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2021_full.json

Deterministic champion

(3) Gonzaga

Actual champion

Baylor

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

71.9% (23 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

31

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.668

LogLoss

0.594

Brier

0.204

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

71.9% (23 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.627

LogLoss

0.632

Brier

0.221

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

68.3% (43 / 63)

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

Baylor

Prob

3.95%

Rank

#4

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

Baylor

Games

6

Average win probability

56.0%

Difficulty score

0.440

Difficulty label

Medium

Hardest game

Championship vs (3) Gonzaga (48.4%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	Hartford	79.2%	0.208
Round of 32	(5) Wisconsin	52.5%	0.475
Sweet 16	(8) Villanova	53.0%	0.470
Elite 8	(4) Arkansas	53.5%	0.465
Final Four	(2) Houston	49.5%	0.505
Championship	(3) Gonzaga	48.4%	0.516

Season 2019

R64 Acc: 68.8% EXCLUDED (STRUCTURAL): 31

2019 Predictions

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Loaded from

/app/data/actual/normalized/mm_games_2019_full.json

Deterministic champion

(3) Gonzaga

Actual champion

(3) Virginia

Champion correct

No

Round of 64 accuracy (32 games)

68.8% (22 / 32)

Excluded (structural) matchups

31

Probability metrics (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.917

LogLoss

0.536

Brier

0.177

Accuracy (Round of 64 | game-by-game)

68.8% (22 / 32)

Probability metrics (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

ROC AUC

0.884

LogLoss

0.577

Brier

0.195

Accuracy (Overall | all rounds | game-by-game)

77.8% (49 / 63)

Champion probability (Monte Carlo)

True champion

(3) Virginia

Prob

4.00%

Rank

#6

Champion Path Difficulty

True champion

(3) Virginia

Games

6

Average win probability

57.3%

Difficulty score

0.427

Difficulty label

Medium

Hardest game

Championship vs (5) Texas Tech (50.3%)

Round	Opponent	Win Prob	Difficulty
Round of 64	Gardner–Webb	77.8%	0.222
Round of 32	Oklahoma	56.1%	0.439
Sweet 16	Oregon	56.7%	0.433
Elite 8	(2) Purdue	51.3%	0.487
Final Four	Auburn	52.0%	0.480
Championship	(5) Texas Tech	50.3%	0.497